Interview: Krešimir Kuk on Earthquake Risks and Seismic Preparedness

Interviewer: Atty. Bilge Kaan ÖZKAN

Guest: Krešimir Kuk – Department of Geopyshics

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1.

B.K.Ö:: Mr. Kuk, thank you for joining us. Could you briefly introduce yourself and your background in seismology?

Krešimir Kuk: Thank you for having me. I am a seismologist with over 20 years of experience in earthquake research and risk management. My work focuses on monitoring seismic activity, analyzing fault lines, and advising on disaster preparedness strategies both in Croatia and internationally.

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2.

B.K.Ö:: How would you describe the earthquake risk in Hırvatistan compared to Türkiye?

K.K.: Both countries are seismically active but in different ways. Turkey sits on multiple major fault lines, including the North Anatolian Fault, making it prone to large magnitude earthquakes. Croatia, on the other hand, has moderate activity concentrated in regions like Zagreb and along the Dalmatian coast, with smaller but still significant seismic events.

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3.

B.K.Ö:: Are there particular regions in Hırvatistan where earthquakes are more likely?

K.K.: Exactly, yes. Zagreb, the capital, sits near active fault lines and has experienced damaging earthquakes in the past, most notably the 2020 Petrinja earthquake. Coastal areas, especially Split and the Dalmatian islands, also experience occasional seismic activity due to the Adriatic tectonics.

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4.

B.K.Ö:: Can we expect earthquakes of similar magnitude in Croatia as those in Türkiye?

K.K.: Major earthquakes in Croatia tend to be smaller than the largest ones in Türkiye, but they can still cause significant damage locally, particularly in older or unreinforced buildings. So while magnitudes may differ, the risk should not be underestimated.

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5.

B.K.Ö:: How accurate are earthquake predictions, scientifically speaking?

K.K.: Predicting the exact time and magnitude of earthquakes is currently impossible. We can identify high-risk zones and the likelihood of future activity based on historical and geological data, but precise forecasts remain beyond our capabilities.

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6.

B.K.Ö:: What lessons can Hırvatistan learn from Türkiye’s experience with earthquakes?

K.K.: Turkey has a long history of dealing with high seismic risk. One key lesson is the importance of strict building codes and retrofitting older structures. Another is public education on emergency preparedness, which significantly reduces casualties during major events.

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7.

B.K.Ö:: How do modern monitoring systems improve earthquake preparedness?

K.K.: Seismic networks, GNSS sensors, and early warning systems allow us to detect tremors quickly and alert populations before the strongest shaking reaches them. This can save lives and protect critical infrastructure.

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8.

B.K.Ö:: Have you observed any recent changes in seismic activity in the Adriatic region?

K.K.: There has been a slight increase in minor tremors in some areas, such as near Zadar and Berkovići. These events highlight the continuous activity along local faults, though they are mostly small and do not pose widespread danger.

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9.

B.K.Ö:: How can cities like Zagreb prepare for future earthquakes?

K.K.: Urban planning must prioritize seismic resilience: retrofitting old buildings, enforcing modern construction standards, and designing evacuation routes.

Public drills and awareness campaigns are also crucial for community readiness.

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10.

B.K.Ö:: What role does research play in mitigating earthquake damage?

K.K.: Research informs building codes, emergency protocols, and hazard maps. By understanding fault behavior and ground motion, we can better anticipate the impact of earthquakes and reduce risks to populations.

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11.

B.K.Ö:: Are there technologies or innovations you see as game-changers for earthquake safety?

K.K.: Early warning systems and real-time monitoring via GNSS and IoT sensors are transformative. They can automatically shut down critical systems, alert emergency services, and provide seconds to minutes of warning before the main shock.

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12.

B.K.Ö:: How do earthquakes affect local economies, even if the magnitude is moderate?

K.K.: Even moderate quakes can damage infrastructure, homes, and historic buildings. The economic cost includes repair, disruption to business, and long-term recovery. That’s why investing in prevention is far cheaper than post-disaster response.

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13.

B.K.Ö:: What is the public perception of earthquake risk in Croatia?

K.K.: Many people underestimate the risk, especially in regions without recent major events. Raising awareness through education campaigns and regular drills is essential to foster a culture of preparedness.

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14.

B.K.Ö:: What advice would you give to residents in earthquake-prone areas?

K.K.: Be proactive: secure furniture, know safe spots in your home, and have an emergency kit ready. Understand evacuation plans and participate in local drills. Knowledge and preparation can save lives.

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15.

B.K.Ö:: Finally, what is your outlook for seismic activity in the next decade in both Türkiye and Croatia?

K.K.: Turkey will continue to face significant earthquake risk due to its major fault lines, so continuous vigilance is required. Croatia will likely experience smaller but still impactful events. Both countries must prioritize preparedness, infrastructure resilience, and public education to reduce risks.

16.

B.K.Ö: Many experts have been discussing the expected major earthquake in Istanbul along the North Anatolian Fault. From your perspective, what are the potential risks and necessary preparations?

K.K.: Istanbul is in a very high-risk zone due to the North Anatolian Fault. A major earthquake could affect millions of people, and older buildings are particularly vulnerable. Preparation should focus on retrofitting structures, strengthening emergency response systems, and educating the public. Early warning systems and community drills are also essential to reduce casualties and damage.

17.

Mr. Kuk, could you tell us which regions in the world are more likely to experience significant earthquakes in the near future?

KK: Earthquakes are most likely in areas located on active tectonic plate boundaries. For example, the Pacific “Ring of Fire” — stretching from Japan, Indonesia, Chile, Mexico, to the west coast of the United States — is one of the most seismically active regions. Large earthquakes are expected there simply because of the constant interaction between plates.

Q: And what about Europe, including Croatia?

KK:: In Europe, the Mediterranean region is most active. Turkey, Greece, Italy, and the Balkans all lie on complex fault systems where the African and Eurasian plates interact. For Croatia specifically, moderate earthquakes are always possible, particularly around Zagreb and the Adriatic coastal areas.

Q: People often ask if scientists can predict exactly when and where a major earthquake will occur. What is your response?

KK: Unfortunately, exact prediction is not possible with current science. What we can do is assess probabilities based on historical data, geology, and seismic monitoring. That’s why preparedness, resilient infrastructure, and public awareness are far more important than trying to guess the exact date of an earthquake.